Crafted Coding GmbH

Avatar, sustainability and augmented reality – why 2100 will look so very different than what everyone had thought

Stefan — Sun, 19 May 2013 08:47:15 +0000

Basically every science fiction movie these days depicts the future as a shiny technological heaven with flying cars and holographic imagery. Whilst some of this may indeed become a reality more sooner than later, chances are we will see quite the opposite. And righteously so.

Full disclosure first: the author is a huge fan of science fiction, among other things because he grew up in between thousands of books of the genre. And surely, technology-ladden utopias were one part of the fascination. But hey, can’t we all err on the right side?

Avatar is one of these movies you either hate or love. At first it seemed like really not such a great idea. The term “avatar” itself may be highly valued among role-players, yet it already sounded a little out-dated by the time the movie started screening. Plus: that whole thing with mother earth and Gaia ..

Well two things changed dramatically after having seen the film: 1) it was really good and quite different from the expectation. But 2) – and that was probably more relevant – I remember I left the movie theatre and thought I had just seen a glimpse of the future.

If you look at modern societies, they all seem to go through the same sort of cycle. After a phase of agriculture, then early capitalism with all its ugly side effects (think London in the 1850s, but also Foxconn just recently), manufacturing becomes more efficient and also cleaner. The next step then is people discovering that actually what they want is no longer the basics, but things with a more unique appeal. I could cite my very favourite brickarms here again, but just have a look at Etsy and you know this is far more widespread.

Part of this trend has been the ongoing move towards more natural products. It is probably best to indeed call this “back to nature”. Parquet floors have been en vogue with the urban intelligence for decades. Wooden furniture – that actually shows the wood – are more and more gracing the same homes. The whole nordic design philosophy is centred around a simple yet haptically compelling style. And if you ask even the most hardcore cosmopolitan for their idea of a perfect day, chances are you will hear the words “sea” and “nature”. One more? Gardens on the roofs of Brooklyn.

Of course that all makes sense. As with so many other things in human life, we are after all still the same animal we have been for hundreds of thousands of years. And therefore still require the same sort of surrounding (and nutrition).

So with that in mind, we should start thinking about the future not as a place that is even more remote from what we really crave for. But as one that helps feeling more people in synch with nature, whilst on the other side maintaining the same – or most likely a way higher – standard of communication, access to information, transportation, health care, energy, etc.

How will that look like. And what does augmented reality have to do with it? Here are some examples:

Highways – Twelve lines are no longer required with cars bumper to bumper because they are driven by computer and are lined up like pearls. And as they are all powered by electricity, there is very little noise. And with super-high resolution screens built into walls, traffic can be moved under the ground at least in and near settlements.
Apartments – Self-sustainable, electronically supported gardening or even farming locally accessible (in larger buildings inside, otherwise in decentralised facilities), will feel more like a wood cabin, bathrooms are getting more and more your own personal fountain whilst consuming less water than ever. Furniture is changeable and Augmented Reality can put whatever texture on it.
Retail – Stores are a place to showcase physical items and not store them. They are being same-day delivered or self-manufactured. Less stores, as each has more items to offer with less variety per item as it merely serves as a sample and a surface to project on.
Communication – Super-immersive with a combination of 3D image emitting surroundings and personal wearable systems overlaying individual layers. Glasses worn at all times. Feeds can be sourced from everyone and everywhere, including aerial imagery of remote places through drones. And yes, Mr. Musk, that would be true for the Mars, too.
Health care – Sensors surround your body (and are basically built into everything).

Now the charm of an idea that stretches out so far into the future is of course that almost no one reading this today will be able to check it in 87 years. But if you get this through google in the year 2100, it would be nice if you could link to it in your personal blogosphere by then. Unfortunately, I don’t really believe in eternal life. At least not for my generation. But on that one, I’d be happy to be wrong ..

Live long and prosper.

It’s really not that difficult – From idea to business

Stefan — Tue, 02 Oct 2012 20:37:28 +0000

Founding a business is still not a regular activity for someone to engage in in Europe. So very often, we are getting a lot of attention from people interested in doing something similar. Therefore, we decided to pull together a few of the general ideas we share when talking about the subject.

So here they are, our ten simple rules for starting a business way easier than one thought it would be …

Only do something you really like – no need to come up with an ingenious way of making money if you don’t like the thought of thinking about it under the shower. You will spend too much time and energy on something you are only in for the money otherwise. And money can’t buy happiness, full stop.

Do some basic calculations – you don’t have to be a numbers wizard. But try to realistically gauge how much you have to sell and how much you need to invest before you do something. If it’s only your time in the beginning, that may be fine (see point one). But you have to be able to make a case for this being something that finances itself over time.

The business is the product– regardless of what you do, you build a business, not only a product or service. Whilst the latter is an absolute key element of what you do, ultimately you have to build a way of producing or delivering it consistently and (again) profitably. Plan for that, don’t stop at having the product ready.

Don’t go nuts on your target market – even facebook has “only” about 10-15% of the world’s population covered, so what makes you think 10% of 7 billion is a conservative estimate for your target market size. Try the other way around: how many clients are there within 50km of where you live?

Don’t go nuts on your first product – unless you build a jet (has to fly) or a space station (has to fly) or something equally inexpensive to develop and test, try to understand what your clients want with the so called “minimum viable product”. For two reasons: a) you are more efficient and b) you avoid discussions later why needing to put more effort into something that has already been costing so much time to develop. By the way, this does not mean low quality at all. Just the minimum feature set. Oh and figure out what your clients are really buying from you. It may not be what you think it is.

Don’t sell to your friends – it may be tempting, but making everyone you have been knowing for years a potential target for sales does not help on your numbers nor your social life. Unless someone comes and asks for it, don’t.

Be patient – the hockey stick effect is something for managers aiming at their next job. Most businesses start slow and steady and hit a tipping point later. If at all. But you don’t need to have overexponential growth rates to run a healthy company.

Be efficient – large budgets are great, but also stifle creativity. Besides, they may require you to pay back something for years. Very often, you don’t need a lot of money to get going or find new clients. Which then pay for further growth.

Partner – I could write a separate book about this, but the bottom line is this: think of partners as others helping you do something better than you could for the same clients that you target. Now find as many of them as you can work with in a useful and equally valuable manner. This can really boost whatever you do.

Enjoy the show – see also point one. Some phases may be grim, but allover the (wo)man in the mirror in the morning should like what (s)he is doing. If not, consistenly, reconsider.

iPhone5 – the lesson learned

Stefan — Wed, 19 Sep 2012 06:08:19 +0000

“Boring”, “lame” or “nothing really new” were words used quickly when referring to the new iPhone. Then again, they probably miss the point completely. It’s really no longer about ghz, gb or pixels.

We have to admit that at first, we were quick to judge, too. Not really that different from the predecessor, what, no brain control, don’t they always say amazing. The new iPhone5 became a question mark towards Apple’s sanity after Steve has left us pretty quickly.

But then, we realised we fell into the same trap. As several reviews are proving, the iPhone5 may not be as big as a jump as the iPhone was originally (and this would not be possible anyway). But by focusing on what really matters and not letting themselves distract from the useless feature mania that has driven the gadget economy for so long, Tim and team have clearly proven that Apple still knows one thing better than anyone else in the world: how to meet a user’s needs. Visually, tactile, and most importantly, pleasure to use.

I am still waiting for Apple’s first play in the Augmented Reality market, pretty sure we will see an iHUD (with a much better labelling) in the not too distant future. But until then, be at Samsung or Nokia or Google: Cupertino is still the centre of the mobile universe.

Now if we only had bought Apple stock at $23. Or $90. Or $550.

Augmented Reality is around the corner

Stefan — Sun, 01 Jul 2012 20:36:27 +0000

If you ever thought, glasses would go out of style, think again. We admit smart contact lenses are already on the horizon. But until then, the next UI paradigm shift is tightly connected to a pair of old-fashioned lenses.

Little was I surprised when discovering that Thad Starner had been working with Google for some time. The man who almost single-handedly invented the field of blending reality with an information layer would of course end up at the world’s largest provider of information on basically everything. Now while Google is increasingly being seen as a little bit more evil than they want to be, there latest announcement around Google Glasses, courtesy Starner and his team, made me want to register as a US developer immediately. For what Augmented Reality will bring to the table will pale even the exponential growth pattern the mobile revolution we are just encountering.

Simply put, this was what computers were always meant to be like. Pending brain interfaces, glasses with a smart way of interaction and a display right in front of your eyes are so enticing, that we will all have a very hard time getting our kids to stop wearing them other than when in the pool. Smart things are just starting to add an indistinguishable information layer to every object. Social networks have brought Andy Warhol’s projection of everyone being world-famous for 15 minutes in the future to life. Sensors like GPS have given us more senses than mother nature had suggested. And content of all kind is ready to be consumed in whatever context it may fit. The one thing missing – and only mildly bridged by iPhone and co – is a user interface that is so seamless and so integrated into the new, hilariously information rich context, that it basically extends our brain. So in the end, artificial intelligence may not be so much of a standalone thing, but a tightly knit web surrounding our very own center of smarts.

As with every new technology, this one will trigger it’s own avalanche of innovation. While quite a few applications on the mobile machines will transition easily to this new paradigm, there will be room for plenty of new things unheard of so far in their usability. And of course all existing tools and digital servants will need to be adapted, too. So here’s a list of things we will see popping up pretty soon and in the process hopefully making their users and developers happier:

Sports – ever since Apple teamed up with Nike to come up with Nike+, I am waiting for them to showcase some decent glasses with a head up display included. After all, in sports like triathlon, looking a little outer space is a desired feature, and not a set-back. Cyclists will see crowd-sourced tire killers on the road ahead before getting into trouble. Swimmers (…) can monitor their stroke accuracy. And racing against a virtual opponent has all of a sudden an entirely new meaning.

Social interactions – not only can we look up things on the web more unobtrusively in a conversation. That weird feeling of “who was that again” will be removed by face recognition software connected to your fb/linkedIn/xing outlet. And not only will you be able to understand who is in front of you, but also have some topic lists to dive into, supported by the ever present information layer.

Travel – it is still awkward to see someone with his iPhone held high trying to find his way around. Nothing screams “tourist” more precisely than the digital version of a map in your hands. With everyone wearing a display, you will be local everywhere at ease. And because the info stream never stops, you will identify that really important place on the left when you are there and not later in the hotel when browsing through a tourist guide. Plus: forget language barriers.

Back to nature – wish your child was more open for the environment around her? Well, with a guidebook practically attached to her forehead – and given gamification will be accepted wildly as a means to educate the younglings more efficiently – she will be knowing her way through mother nature more easily than ever before. And in the process, maybe discover her new love for something so scientific you did not even know it existed.

Retail – we are seeing this already: items come to life in the tiny screen held in our hands. With a head up display, a shop becomes an experience on so many layers. And they may be different for everyone. Plus: your merchandise does not stop talking to you after you have left shop. You will be able to see that your runners shoes have seen their best days or get alerted that your DvF dress does really not go into that washing machine.

20 years from now, it will be hard to see why we have used heavy machines, especially those not portable, for so long. Maybe 10. But as of 2013, the next step in evolution will officially start. Thank you, Thad!

Bypassing the Appyth – Five tips to make your app work

Stefan — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 21:44:49 +0000

With a fair amount of in-depth client interaction under the belt, we thought it’s time to provide some first hand tips for everyone seeking to get started on the mobile channel.

Google recently released an analysis showcasing the rise of mobile web access. Nothing new to everyone who always believed that mobile was way better suited as a theme to interact with computers than the old mainframe heritage bunch of desktops. But it was nevertheless comforting to see the lead so clearly from such a trusted source.

So now that we are over the “why now” question, and having learned about our clients’ point of view from quite a few different angles, I thought it would make sense to enlist our top five of things to do right when launching your very mobile initiative.

1) Start using social media – like it or not, Facebook and twitter have changed the world in a lasting manner. If you haven’t started a social presence by now, you should do so within the next 15 mins. It is not only free of charge and directly puts you into contact with basically everyone. Getting accustomed to the principle of posting and sharing often and in small chunks, will also pave the way for staying relevant on the mobile channel. Because the more people see you as a steady source of information, the more value they attach to you, too.

2) Allow for iteration – one of the small wonders of the app world is their ability to get updated without any hassle at all. Something most Windows PCs would still love to be able to do, their smaller brothers were born with. And because of that, it is really no problem to launch an app with a small set of features, and then extend it. Plus: as your users discover you on their mobile devices, they will let you know what else they would love to see. Ship fast, adapt faster.

3) Don’t copy the website – frankly, when we started this, we believed people wanted a copy of their website. Luckily, people smarter than us, helped us understanding that it was not the case. Your website was invented for thoughtful browsing. Like when buying a car and configuring it. Or comparing travel arrangements. Or seeing a DVD and in parallel answering eMails on one screen. Mobile is all about impulse, small screen, targeted information, context, and small time spans of uninterrupted attention. So a mobile app has to serve different use cases. Which does not mean your web site content is rendered useless. But it is only one source of inspiration for what your app should do.

4) Become a one-stop-shop – do you know why your clients want to recommend you? They think you have something to say about a topic that is of importance to them. This can be anything: Custom built Lego models, expat diets for women on the Arabian peninsula, software add-ons for top notch ERP systems, or street style. Do you know why they finally recommend you? Because it’s easy (and they increase their social reputation). Therefore, one of the best ways to utilize iPhone and co is to make yourself an indispensable part of their information needs and help them to share their insights and discoveries as easily as possible.

5) Don’t re-invent the wheel – you are an expert in (fill in here). Unless you just filled in “mobile app development”, why bother with how to build the perfect app. Concentrate on your core business, and let someone else figure out how to adequately translate and extend this experience 24/7. After all, you didn’t program your website, too, right?

The last rays of sun

Stefan — Wed, 02 Nov 2011 13:32:50 +0000

Reality still beats everything else.

Steve Jobs, 1955-2011

Stefan — Thu, 06 Oct 2011 16:28:02 +0000

Sometimes, words are just not enough.

Timezones are so 2010

Stefan — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 19:53:11 +0000

Farmers used to get up with the sun rising and ended their day accordingly. Since then, we have moved away from daylight driven lifestyles. And for the global citizen of 2011, 24/7 is not a threat, but an opportunity. Which businesses need to tap into.

One of the key benefits of offering clients a mobile access is the ability to communicate wherever they are. Less often do we look at the impact of the timing of these requests.

TV sets used to be switched on in the evening, at first, with news and programs entertaining the employee after a long day. Morning programs started adressing the needs of children lacking proper parental guidance. Sooner or later, the larger portion of the day was covered in a stream of images and sounds. German television went numb at night, and – ah – the excitement once it got open up for programs like “Spacenight“.

Computers, their microprocessory tightly glued to cathode rays, started following suit. Turn on the TV, turn on the computer, throw in a cassette and wait for 10 mins. As limited as the graphical possibilities of the Commodore VC20 and co were the time slots in which they were used.

Fast forward to Gameboy (now in 3D), 4G networks, and the iPhone 5. While cynics claim there’s no more place to hide, the digital boheme has learned living 24/7, thanks to first the blackberry, then its more visually rich offspring. Most people don’t see the use for checking eMail and what-have-you about every 60 seconds. Especially not at 3 am or during a run on the treadmill. But for an increasingly larger part of the population, this is not an electronic leash, but the launch pad to working heaven.

And just as they use the device to earn their money around the clock, they also use it to spend at times formerly deemed as definitely off-hours in all but the most economically driven states.

The Mobile Awareness Cloud

Stefan — Mon, 12 Sep 2011 16:05:45 +0000

iCloud has put the mainstream in touch with data available everywhere. This will not only change the way users interact with their environment, but also offer those companies with a knack for social media and mobile a way to stay ahead of the curve.

Apple’s iCloud has put the concept of data in the cloud on center stage. No one should any longer be concerned about where data resides, or on what hardware, as well as having to distribute it over several devices. Again, Apple is not inventing the wheel, but probably ending up re-inventing it.

In a way, data is more and more surrounding us. We track our vital stats, we buy things available due to sophisticated supply chain management systems, we post our everysecond moods on social networks, and trust our wellbeing in traffic to satellites and GPS receivers. What we can not do today, is see those 1s and 0s.

Mobile will change this.

In the old world, data was connected to items, such as an order, or a video. Increasingly, data is being connected to places. Where we used to pull information based on the objects it was attached to, we are now seeing more and more streaming of data with us selecting the sources.

All this will converge in a new way of looking at the information surrounding us. We will be constantly subjected to data available given the context and the place we are currently in. We will chose the sources serving us and allow them to constantly serve us with data. We will also expect it to move seamlessly between devices. And the selection process will be highly correlated to the usefulness of the data in a given situation.

What does this mean for companies?

Be were your clients are, serve them the information they need, and provide them the means to act on it when necessary or wanted. Each user’s cloud will carry the vital ingredients of his life and being part of that is as vital for the companies. So feeding social media streams and serving the mobile channel are key ingredients to staying relevant.

Coming full circle: Virtual neighborhoods

Stefan — Sun, 03 Jul 2011 23:33:23 +0000

New York City has a lot to offer. And it is also a real-time lab for how (a very specific part of) consumer behavior is changing. Neighborhoods will never be the same.

I recently returned from a trip to New York, my second favorite city in the world. Having visited on an almost yearly basis in the last decade, it was interesting to observe how my patterns of movement had more and more changed over the last years. Where the Upper East Side and Radio City had been familiar places in the beginning, Tribeca and Nolita feel more right now. Had the Sheraton (7th on 53rd) been an easy target for the first trips, The Smyth Hotel (West Broadway on Chambers) was the place of choice this time. And instead of frequenting one of the large shopping temples on 5th, outlets the size of a Macy in-store are now en vogue. So in essence, anonymity is increasingly being beaten by coziness. One may call that getting old. Or just human.

Same, same but different: Farmer markets have been popping up in the US everywhere and are increasingly attracting a younger generation in Europe. There may be a premium charged for buying vegetables under the bright sun instead of neon-light. But this feels right to many of us today, not only for the higher quality of the food, but also for the extra in experiencing a true interaction with the vendor. Because, yes, in the end, people run businesses. And our need for social interactions can be well served by a conversation with a trusted vendor of fresh fish.

Just like for food, retailers, hotels, restaurants offering a less standardized and more intimate experience are flourishing. In a world of niche markets and freemium, the old tradition of talking to a person one can relate to, increasingly makes the difference. Why spend half an hour in a sterile shop, hunting down lowest prices for a quality rarely deemed appropriate, when the same time can be spend with someone truly interested in her merchandise. Why spend a night in one of 1000 rooms and among nameless staff, when a concierge does actually remember what you did last night and wants to learn about the experience?

So businesses become smaller again, more nimble, closer, friendlier, more human. The only difference is, they can now extend their friendly touch 24/7 by means of mobile technologies. Welcome to the new virtual neighborhoods.